The valuation of the stock is based on Musk doing what he’s always done, which is making seemingly impossible promises sometime in the future.
You know what he promised by 2025? A fleet of driverless Tesla taxis. xAI producing the first AGI. A human being on Mars planting a flag.
You know what the evaluation of SpaceX is based on? The promise of a Mars colony with one million human inhabitants, and space-based data centers. It’s going to be decades before it’s worth the IPO, if ever.
In the meantime SpaceX is in debt 20 billion, and is bleeding money. It lost $4.94 billion in 2025.
So it looks to me like a private equity project. Like Toys 'R Us or Radio Shack or Claire’s. Remember those?
And Nasdaq-100 is fast-tracking SpaceX into its portfolio after 15 days. Soon, pension funds and 401(k)s are going to feature SpaceX stocks. So when it does implode, a lot of worker-class folk are going to eat the loss.
You know who I bet will not be eating the loss? Trillionaire Elon Musk.
Jesus Christ thank you for reminding me to confirm I keep his shit as far away from my pension as possible. Thankfully I’m in Canada so I feel there’s a hope
Narrator: He was wrong.
Disagree with my pension and my RRSP I do have options for how I want to distribute my investments for example focusing on Canada or Europe or BRIC for investments or even dumping your money into a less risky but more stable money market. They’re pretty diverse now.
Other guys comment, and the note about pension funds, is more about how things like the CPP will invest in SpaceX – as will many ETF/bundled type ‘funds’ that people use. Things practically outside your control.
Yes, you and others can invest your personal wealth into whatever you want. But your gov old age stuff will invest into stuff like SpaceX regardless, and be exposed to potential risks should things collapse catastrophically.
CPP is mandated to make a set return for the Canadian people and it’s pretty loose on now they do that. I agree it’s concerning them looking at morally questionable companies but money wants to make money and I would argue Canadians care more about having money for their retirement than they do the companies they’re investing in.
Case in point since Trump 45 we should have been collectively divesting in America yes we haven’t. American companies even hostile ones still have a huge economic edge. I expect the CPP to be pragmatic and not invest based on their morals all the time. That makes for bad finances. Sucks but sadly this is the world.
So the narrator was correct?
For all his false promises: https://elonmusk.today/
Looks like the webmaster (do people still use that word?) is asleep at the wheel there.
Last update 266 days ago.
Good point
Soon, pension funds and 401(k)s are going to feature SpaceX stocks.
Not mine. I’m selling my NASDAQ index fund next week. Thankfully the S&P said no.
This is probably the single most important thing we plebs can do.
My favorite part about data centers in space is it may actually be impossible from a physics standpoint to build the heat radiators large enough for even a small one. Even though space is cold and would seem to make sense, it is also a destructive vacuum and to radiate even a small amount of heat outside of a shielded core would take a huge array of radiators
No, it’s totally possible. Not with any technology we’ve ever built, maybe not with any technology we can build, but physics doesn’t preclude it outright.
Your point still stands though. It’s a promise that’s impossible to meet within the lifetime of the investors.
It’s possible, but not economical.
For basically any “space datacenter” scenario, imagine putting that same thing in a vast desert instead. You’ll find it’s easier and an order of magnitude cheaper.
Yeah, maybe not impossible, but I mean extremely unlikely. I found a thread on reddit that had examples and a spreadsheet https://www.reddit.com/r/IsaacArthur/comments/11kp7s4/how_large_of_a_heatradiator_would_a_spacecraft/
To run a data center in space you would need some kind of reactor producing around 100 MW. If rejecting 100 MW at 800 K
A= 100,000,000 / 0.85×5.670374419e−8×800
The number is the Stefan-Boltzmann constant (σ) https://physics.knox.edu/OnlineHW/zTest-PhysicalConstants.html
A≈5,065 m²
So roughly:
5,100 m² of radiating surface
That is a square about:
√(5065) ≈71 m per side
If it is a double-sided radiator panel, the physical panel area could be about half:
2,530 m² of panel, about 50 m × 50 m, assuming both sides radiate effectively.
Also temperature matters enormously so
At emissivity 0.85:
Radiator temp Area for 100 MW 300 K ~256,000 m² 500 K ~33,200 m² 800 K ~5,100 m² So the answer is about 5,000 m² (lol this is like “a football field” on each side) at 800 K, but balloons to absurd levels like hundreds of thousands of m² if you are trying to dump room-temperature waste heat which there would be a significant amount of. That is for a single small data center at current power needs. In the US alone data centers use 176 TWh (https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/R48646), so there is no chance we are going to be migrating a significant portion of it into space.
800K is 526C! You can’t run a datacenter at that.
80C (still very hot for datacenter hardware coolant) is 350K. And there are other challenges, like effects from being in LEO, or proximity to wherever the solar array is.
And this is just one of MANY ridiclous engineering challenges. Another great example is that GPUs, memory, and SSDs get random bit flips in orbit, and the issue gets worse with smaller lithography: https://www.itpro.com/server-storage/high-performance-computing-hpc/367323/hpes-supercomputer-helps-iss-astronauts
There’s tons of spam about “solving” this after the Tech Bro boom, but I don’t really buy anything I’ve seen. Nothing but a bunch of lead (or the Earth’s atmosphere) is going to stop fat gamma rays or extremely fast nuclei.
800K is 526C! You can’t run a datacenter at that.
Yeah, the temperature was an estimate for the nuclear reactor that would be needed lol, I tried to explain that most of the datacenter would be closer to room temperature which would require absurd sizes of radiators
To be fair, 100MW is pretty big.
AI doesn’t actually need that much. I’m pretty sure entire models like GLM 5.2 or Deepseek v4 are trained (and served) on a much, much smaller scale than a 100MW cluster.
But if that’s the case… why even invest in orbital data centers in the first place?
Why not desert ones? Why all this cash there instead of actually improving LLM architectures!?
There are so many nested levels of absurdity here. It’s all just total mania, with zero punishment to those doing the funding because they are too rich to feel any consequences.
FPO: future promise offering
Elon musk also made seemingly impossible promises for Tesla and their stock price, and he exceeded them.
He didn’t deliver on any promise except the stock price itself that’s pumped up by lies and idiots believing in it.
That was the main promise lol
What technology promise did he make that he kept?
His promise of self-driving cars turned into a huge pile of accidents, especially since he insisted (still insists) that autopilot operate on a single sensor. Waymo uses five.
It’s not like his companies did nothing. Getting his launch vehicles to land safely, vertically, was way cool, but a small step on the way to space colonies or space tourism.
He promised to get teslas share price and sales figures etc to a seemingly impossible level, and he exceeded it which is why he was then due his gigantic pay packet that the courts then ridiculously blocked. You guys are doing the same thing to SpaceX as you did for Tesla, and the results will be the same - you’ll look foolish.
FSD on Teslas is insane. It’s demonstrably safer than real drivers. It doesn’t use a single sensor, it uses a single type of sensor, which has proven to be more than good enough.
Calling reusable self landing rockets a “small step” is beyond a joke. It’s probably the single biggest innovation in space travel since space travel has been a thing.
Tesla FSD is not safer than real drivers. All robotaxis are level 4 at most, so it’s an “apples vs oranges” thing. It’s like saying trains are safer than real drivers. By all accounts, the Tesla robotaxis are the worst that exist, and they’re barely being used where they’ve been rolled out.
I will give credit that Tesla forced other car manufacturers to innovate, but they’re outclassed in every way now.
FSD is a better driver than most people.
Sure would be nice to have some food, affordable housing, and healthcare…
Get out of here, fracking lazy SOCIALIST!! 😡
They keep going around trying to make the world a better place. Awful hateful people.
Right??! Frack them!!
Y’all just need to pull yourself up by the bootstraps
Down 6%.
The line wiggled a bit.
I think you mean PLUNGED or DECIMATED!
/s
Also I’m sick of these words in titles. As you said it’s barely a ripple overall.
TBi slams sensationalist headlines!
Well, and 5% the day before, and likely another 10% by the time it shakes out.
Morningstar puts the price at $62/share, so that’s a possibility there.
I get it. I have a uniquely shaped rock that I found in a ditch. I value that thing at about 530 billion dollars. /s
Does it repel tigers?
Absolutely!!
Then I don’t want it. I want to attract tigers.
You sound like one of them demoncrats 🤨
Only under water
I will buy this rock.
The reflecting pool is now full of underwater tigers tasked with stalking the algae. The price has quadrupled.
Former world’s first trillionaire
The other day I made a comment on the original IPO post saying that he isn’t a trillionaire because the IPO isn’t promising anything and got argued with about it.
Even Goldman Sachs was saying the IPO was ridiculous.
Everyone involved in this entire affair was an idiot. XAI has absolutely no product to speak of, where’s the valuation coming from?
But you have to understand, if we regulated these people, THEY WOULD LEAVE! then what would we do?
OH THE HUMANITY! WHAT WOULD WE DO WITHOUT THE BILLIONAIRES!!?!
Interestingly enough enough places in the world have attempted to tax billionaires that we do have some data. For the most part they don’t leave.
They can afford the tax anyway, and really the whole point of money, as far as their concerned, is to just throw it at people to solve problems for them. They don’t want to pay extra tax on principle because they don’t think other people should get their money, but they also don’t actually care enough to go to the effort to leaving.
Besides where would they go?
Just imagine how many problems 600bn USD would solve. Instead, it’s just fake virtual currency flowing through the hands of a few billionaires
They could probably just about clean a small pond for that amount of money.
They could put a mirror finish on the bottom and fill it with quick set epoxy.
Money isn’t real.
Mine certainly isn’t.
Once again, wealth trickles up to the billionaires.
Capitalism! Gotta love it, or not.
I choose ‘not’
I got my stupid 111€ profit from the stupid shares after selling it off.
Hope it dies in a fire.Every 5 years or so, I get an $80US residuals check from my uncle’s estate. Hey, it’s a couple bottles of decent wine.
I hope every Nazi piece of shit with money in this ends up destitute as fuck.
They’re making an exception to put it into index funds more quickly than is ordinarily allowed, so a lot of normal people might end up holding it too…
That is a great point.
The SP500 refused to allow SpaceX in on an accelerated schedule, so its usually vetting process would still apply (12 months of public trading, positive earnings for a period of time, etc).
So right now, SP500 is one index fund that isn’t taking a risk on SpaceX, which I, in my tiny knowledge of stocks and finance, appreciate.
If you have a pension plan, you will have money in this, too.
Lucky for me, I fall into the ~40% of people too poor to have investments. But even if I did have money to invest, I wouldn’t fling it blindly where it could be going towards harming the planet.
I don’t think you’ve misunderstood what I’m trying to say.
People with an IRA don’t have control of what the fund is invested into. The fund itself is invested into funds that track the top 100. Therefore, anybody with a generic pension plan is invested into SpaceX, whether they like it or not.
No, I understand. I’m saying I give zero shits about those people taking losses. If you have excess, and you’re expecting to be given more because of your excess, you’re just as culpable in Nazi bullshit when your money ends up invested in it. I don’t care if it requires more personal attention, it’s possible to have your money invested where it will do good, not where it will gain you the largest return at the expense of the planet.
Having a pension is excess?!
It is if you’re still a highschool kid who thinks 50$ is a lot of money.
…you do realize that pensions and 401K’s are what companies replaced actually paying their retired workers a living wage with so that they both didn’t have to pay retirees and to forcibly inflate their own wealth with the wages of their workers, right?
If you work for a big enough company that they provide either of those two, a certain percentage of what you make every week is taken by the company and put into the stock market via index funds (like the NASDAQ, which nows invests your money into SpaceX) and sometimes their own stock without you ever having any say in the matter. It’s not “excess”, it’s wage theft.
If you’re investing in SpaceX directly, that’s one thing and you deserve what you’re going to get just like the people buying Teslas. But there’s very little difference between this and billionaire bailouts on your tax dollars.
beautiful
This is the usual fleecing of the retail investors by the institutional sponsors.
The only people surprised are the retail investors.
SpaceX on Tuesday disclosed it would acquire Cursor for $60 billion in stock, representing roughly 3.4% dilution—meaning investor stakes will represent a smaller percentage of the company—of SpaceX’s $1.77 trillion IPO valuation.
I never understood this. Dilution should require a vote from owners.
You vote by selling your stock if you disagree.
Are more than 50% of shares not owned by Musk? If not, a vote wouldn’t even matter.
What about indication of change? I.E. ability to sell before dilution.
Dilution should require a vote from owners.
Would it be helpful if that had been written into the company’s AoI and server software?
Ahahahaha, I really hope someone ate their lunch on this wonderful stock
nice. i love seeing fElon companies doing badly!
Art of the deal.
